Bad news for Xbox, PlayStation and Nintendo: analysts foresee a sharp drop in console sales

The market of the consoles has an uncertain future in the short term.

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The console market is going through one of its most delicate moments in recent years. The rise in hardware prices, the increase in the cost of components such as memory and SSDs, and a less favorable economic context are directly affecting the sales of Xbox, PlayStation, and Nintendo.

Now, a new report by S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan paints a bleak picture for 2026. According to their forecasts, global console shipments will drop by 19.5% compared to the previous year, although analysts believe that the situation could start to improve towards the end of the decade.

Forecasts for Xbox, PlayStation, and Nintendo

The report estimates that during 2026, 33.9 million consoles will be distributed worldwide. The forecast is that this figure will continue to decline to around 27.1 million units in 2027, before starting a gradual recovery that would bring the market to 37.4 million consoles in 2030.

Here are some of the most notable forecasts:

According to analyst Neil Barbour, one of the key factors for recovery will be the stabilization of the component market. If the supply improves enough before 2028, Sony and Microsoft could launch their next generation of consoles with prices between $600 and $800.

Hardware prices continue to shape the market

Analysts believe that the main obstacle to growth continues to be the increase in manufacturing costs, especially the cost of memory and SSD units, a problem that has ultimately been passed on to consumers with the increase in hardware prices over the past few months.

• In the case of Xbox, the report reflects a particularly complicated situation. After registering its lowest annual volume since the launch of the current generation, S&P predicts that Xbox Series X|S shipments will continue to decline over the next few years as Microsoft focuses more and more on its ecosystem, services, and multi-platform gaming.

Although this is only a forecast by analysts and not official data from Microsoft, Sony, or Nintendo, the report highlights that the video game industry is still facing significant challenges as it prepares for the arrival of the next generation of consoles.